When in the Course of Human Events...

In what has long been one of the greater ironies of our time, we are told to fear what has a small likelihood of doing us any damage, (i.e. terrorism, the newly freed John Mark Karr, Russians, Libyans, North Koreans), but we are told to ignore (i.e. peak oil and climate change) what will affect every single person in the world in some way.

There is little reason to discuss whether oil production will begin to decline, just as there is little reason to discuss the merits of climate change, because if the evidence is even half as substantial as the experts say it is, why would we ever want to take any chances? No longer can we say "it will not happen in our lifetimes," and even if we could, why would we ever leave such a horrible legacy to our successors?

The glaciers are melting, the oceans are warmer, as are the temperatures in almost every city in the northern hemisphere. 2006 will break 2005's record as the warmest on record. Also, gasoline production is declining and the prices at the pump are increasing. The era of cheap oil has ended and we are now in a transitional period that may force us to solve many of the problems that the oil economy has brought (Middle Eastern issues and climate change), or the transition may lead to a long period of unprecedented suffering on an unimaginable scale.

You can see the signs in the papers and other media outlets. People are concerned because they finally are beginning to understand that terrorism and oil are linked. People are beginning to connect that making several needless car trips a day in the USA reinforces the power structures of the current administration and of the brutal Middle Eastern states like Iran, and Saudi Arabia (while our allies, the ruling class perpetrates massive human rights violations on its own populations). Each time any of us buy gasoline that comes from the Middle East, we are not only contributing to the deterioration of the earth's ability to sustain life, but also empowering and legitimizing those who sell it to us. If you dislike the policies of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, I hope you are not commuting 20 miles to work each day in an SUV. Each purchase is your own small, but significant, tacit approval of their actions.

When you begin to consider things in this light, current foreign policy in the Middle East begins to make a lot of sense. The oil wells are drying up and even if demand remains constant (China's gigantic economic strides guarantee that it will not) it will disappear during some of our lifetimes, but unequivocally during our children's lifetimes. Therefore, every assertion of power that the administration has made over the last five years has been nothing more than an attempt to take control over the existing oil reserves. That is why Iraq was invaded (even George Bush admitted that had he known there were no WMD's, he still would have invaded, and it had nothing to do with removing a brutal dictator, see any other oil producing country in the Middle East, because the yarn is the same), a move toward Iran is almost unavoidable unless America's way of life (which Dick Cheney and George Bush have called non-negotiable for obvious reasons), is modified, and in many cases dramatically transformed. The policy in the Middle East since Dick Cheney and PNAC began formulating it, has been to control the existing oil reserves. This is not entirely because, as many critics superficially claim, to enrich himself and colleagues by awarding contracts to KBR and Halliburton. It is because our position as single superpower, our economy, and our very survival depend almost exclusively on oil. Realistically, there is very little we can do without oil. I do not mean just drive to work; I mean heat our buildings, run our (or China's) factories and, and even grow our food. China, except for its massive coal reserves, also depends on oil to grow, and if its access to it were as plentiful as ours, they would pose much more of a threat. Ultimately, this is why Iran cannot be allowed to trade with China, which is why we must prevent it from happening. That is why Hugo Chavez is the new bad guy in our own sphere of influence. No one likes to admit that its country behaves this selfishly, and people are even less likely to admit they their habits contribute to this behavior, but that is exactly what we tacitly support whenever we pump gas into the bottomless bowels of our automobiles.

However, an interesting paradigm is taking shape all over the world. Some cities' mayors, led by Seattle's Mayor Greg Nickels began drumming up support for the Kyoto Protocol at the municipal level. Many cities have signed on. Lately, even businesses have realized that the current mode of operation is not only unsustainable, but destructive. People are beginning to stand up because their governments, whose members are usually the wealthy and powerful in their own countries, are not taking sufficient, if any steps at all to mitigate disaster. You can see it in every election with the margins of victory between the entrenched wealthy elites and the popular candidates growing so narrow as to evade certification. Indeed it may be too late, but at least people are beginning to try. Perhaps the only factor that can unite the people and their cultures of our world is the realization that continued inaction and apathy will result in our mutual annihilation.

Maybe fatalism is not the best medicine, as we know from Condoleezza Rice, in every crisis, there is opportunity. I hope she is more correct about this than she has been about other policies.