Friday, September 15, 2006

It's the Oil, Stupid: U.S. policy for Egypt

Not so long ago, the Secretary of State and the President in addition to pundits have been claiming that the escalating violence in the Middle East birth pangs of democracy in the region. Painful they are, but there is very little to suggest that the U.S. policy is actually turning the Middle East into a region of democratic countries. It is baffling that this tired rhetoric is still spoken but the degree to which this hypocrisy goes unnoticed in the media and general political discourse is frightening.

The Bush Administration is not interested in the nations comprising the Middle East becoming more democratic. In fact, that is what they fear most of all. If the people in these countries were allowed to vote, all indications are that they would elect leaders that oppose U.S. Policy. That policy is to control the resources (oil) of the region. It does not necessarily seek to own them because as long as it is able to control to whom the oil is sold (not China), they will still benefit from any proceeds. It is no secret that without oil, the U.S. economy, or any other, cannot function. We live in an oil-based world. It is as essential to our economic strength as it is to a property functioning motor vehicle. This is documented sufficiently in mainstream news sources that it should not be a point of contention.

Thus, the U.S. must control oil to function. Let us take a look at some countries that make up the Middle East. I will rely on Wikipedia entries because the contributors must pass reasonable and neutral scrutiny in order for the information to remain. That means anyone who has the desire can add their work. As long as it survives some nominal scrutiny it remains published for the average surfer to read. Contributors are able to disagree and when they do, things get sorted out. For more information about this, read this. I certainly do not rely on any of these sources as anything more than someone's interpretation of reality. That is sufficient for our purposes here.

Egypt

Here we go:

Egypt is regarded by many as being ruled by a military dictatorship. Although power is ostensibly organized under a multi-party semi-presidential system, whereby the executive power is theoretically divided between the President and the Prime Minister, in practice it rests almost solely with the President who traditionally has been elected in single-candidate elections for more than fifty years. Egypt also holds regular multi-party parliamentary elections. The last presidential election, in which Mubarak won a fifth consecutive term, was held in September 2005.

To summarize, Egypt is not a democracy. Let us look at its economy. One particularly relevant passage is found here:

Over the last 15 years, more than 180 petroleum exploration agreements have been signed and multinational oil companies spent more than $27 billion in exploration companions. These activities led to the findings of about 18 crude oil fields and 16 natural gas fields in FY 2001. The total number of findings rose to 49 in FY 2005. As a result of these findings, crude oil reserves as of December 2005 are estimated at 3.7 billion barrels, and proven natural gas reserves are 1.89 trillion cubic meters with a likely additional discoveries with more exploration campaigns. The main natural gas producer in Egypt is the International Egyptian Oilfield Company (IEOC), a branch of Italian ENI-AGIP. Other companies like BP, BG, Texas-based Apache Corp. and Shell carry out activities of exploration and production by means of concessions granted for a period of generally ample time (often 20 years) and in different geographic zones of oil and gas deposits in the country.

In sum, Egypt is blessed with the ability to pump oil from within its borders, although that ability is declining. Its government is not a democracy, but they trade with the United States and its Western partners, and do not receive excessive scrutiny for its lack of democratic institutions.

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