It's the Oil, Stupid: U.S. policy for Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

The government:

Politics of Turkmenistan take place in the framework of a presidential republic, whereby the President of Turkmenistan is both head of state and head of government. Turkmenistan has a single-party system ruled by President for Life Saparmurat Niyazov.

The dictator has a Stalinist form of totalitarianism at his command, complete with human rights abuse allegations:

Human rights issues in Turkmenistan, an authoritarian state, include freedom of religion issues. According to Forum 18, despite international pressure, the authorities keep a very close eye on all religious groups and the legal framework is so constrictive that many prefer to exist underground rather than have to pass through all the official processes, which act as barriers. Protestant Christian adherents are affected, in addition to groups such as Jehovah's Witnesses and Hare Krishna. The Hare Krishna are not allowed to seek donations at the country's main airport, the Turkmenbashi Flying Aeroplane Station.

According to the 2005 Reporters Without Borders World Press Freedom Index, Turkmenistan had the 3rd worst press freedom conditions in the world. No one is allowed to describe the President or his family negatively. Also, no reporters are permitted to mention that the President is a very short man (5'1", approx. 154 cm), or that he wears a toupee.

The economy:

Turkmenistan does not have oil reserves, but it does have natural gas at its disposal:

In 1994, Russia's refusal to export Turkmen gas to hard currency markets and mounting debts of its major customers in the former USSR for gas deliveries contributed to a sharp fall in industrial production and caused the budget to shift from a surplus to a slight deficit. Current GDP per capita shrank by 30% in the Nineties as a result. Industrial production of gas fell sharply, putting the budget into deficit--a deficit which has since continued to rise sharply. Currently, Turkmenistan is dependent on Russian pipelines to reach markets in Europe; because oil and gas account for one-third of Turkmenistan's budget revenues[citation needed], Turkmenistan is working to open new gas export corridors through Iran (Nabucco Pipeline) and under the Caspian Sea into Turkey. Privatization goals remain limited. After Russia's refusal to transport Turkmenistan's gas, a difficult investment environment, high rates of inflation, and government regulations made further economic progress unlikely.

However, partial price liberalization, the end of subsidies from Moscow, and poor control over fiscal and monetary aggregates contributed to the high rates of inflation and significant drops in living standards. Despite these conditions, official statistics for 1998 indicated improvements in Turkmenistan's economy. In September 1998 Turkmenistan began exporting gas to Iran via its first pipeline not crossing Russian territory.

This case is particularly interesting, and it will suit us to leave Wikipedia's space momentarily to illuminate some motivations. Note this

A senior US envoy underlined the importance of multiple energy pipelines during a meeting Monday with President Niyazov.

Both sides expressed confidence that mutual cooperation in the energy sphere would go a long way in promoting universal security. The sides also agreed that such cooperation should be based purely on economic considerations. The underlying consensus was that cooperation based on wholesome competition would serve to expand mutually advantageous and equal partnership.

Notice that a brutal dictator that has free reign in his country to do whatever he pleases is sought after as a business partner with the ultimate aim of promoting security.

Uzbekistan

The government:

Also passed in the 2002 referendum was a plan to create a bicameral parliament. Several political parties have been formed with government approval but have yet to show interest in advocating alternatives to government policy. Similarly, although multiple media outlets (radio, TV, newspapers) have been established, these either remain under government control, or rarely broach political topics. Independent political parties have been denied registration under restrictive registration procedures.

Despite extensive constitutional protections, the Karimov government has actively suppressed the activities rights of political movements, continues to ban unsanctioned public meetings and demonstrations, and continues to suppress opposition figures. The repression reduces constructive opposition even when institutional changes have been made. In the mid-1990s, legislation established significant rights for independent trade unions, separate from the government, and enhanced individual rights; but enforcement is uneven, and the role of the state security services remains central.

You can imagine what the practical effect of such unitary power has on the human rights of the Uzbek people.

The economy:

Minerals and mining also are important to Uzbekistan's economy. Gold is Uzbekistan's second most important foreign exchange earner at 22%. Uzbekistan is the world's seventh-largest producer, at about 80 tons p.a., and holds the fourth-largest reserves. Uzbekistan has an abundance of natural gas, used both for domestic consumption and export; oil almost sufficient for domestic needs; and significant reserves of copper, lead, zinc, tungsten, and uranium. Inefficiency in energy use is extremely high, given the failure to use realistic price signals to cause users to conserve energy.

Not an oil or natural gas producer, Uzbekistan does have important strategic assets for the United States. Aside from natural resources, its location makes it ideal for U.S. military operations in Afghanistan, and a further check on China.

Uzbekistan was an active supporter of U.S. efforts against worldwide terrorism and joined the coalitions that have dealt with both Afghanistan and Iraq. The relationship between Uzbekistan and the United States began to deteriorate after the so-called "color revolutions" in Georgia and Ukraine (and to a lesser extent Kyrgystan). When the U.S. joined in a call for an independent international investigation of the bloody events at Andijon, the relationship took an additional nosedive and President Islam Karimov moved more closely into the orbit of Russia and China, countries which refused to criticize Uzbekistan's leaders for their behavior.

In late July, 2005, the government of Uzbekistan ordered the United States to vacate an air base in Karshi-Kanabad (near the Uzbek border with Afghanistan) within 180 days. Karimov had offered use of the base to the U.S. shortly after 9/11. (Neutrality in this section disputed.)

It may also have been important to control the area for purposes of controlling pipelines to China, although that conjecture and is not based on anything but my own speculation given its location between China and the Middle East.

Tags: oil, Middle East, Corporations, U.S. Foreign Policy, Bush Administration, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan