It's the Oil, Stupid: U.S. policy for Azerbaijan, Afghanistan & Pakistan

Azerbaijan

The government:

The president is an absolute ruler. Demonstrations are often suppressed with violence, there are reports of torture and a strong censorship enables a personality cult. The Speaker of Parliament stood next in line to the President, but the constitution was changed at the end of 2002: now the premier is next in line. This was done to make it possible for the son of the 80-year old Heydar, İlham Əliyev to succeed his father, who was admitted to a Turkish hospital on July 8, 2003 because of heart problems. In August, 2003, İlham was appointed as premier with the fake signature of his already dead father, though Artur Rasizade, who had been prime minister since 1996, continued to fulfill the duties of that office so that İlham could concentrate on his presidential election bid. In the October 2003 presidential elections, İlham was announced winner while international observers reported several irregularities. He was sworn in as president at the end of the month, and Rasizade became premier again.

The economy:

Oil remains the most prominent product of Azerbaijan's economy with cotton, natural gas and agriculture products contributing vastly to its unprecedented economic growth perceived over the last five consecutive years. More than $60 billion was invested into Azerbaijan's oil by major international oil companies in AIOC consortium operated by BP. Oil production under the first of these PSAs, with the Azerbaijan International Operating Company, began in November 1997 and now is about 500,000 b/d.

I do not suppose that another dictator whose country has oil producing capabilities receives the tacit and often overt support of the United States, or at least its oil companies, will surprise anyone.

Afghanistan

The government:

Afghanistan is currently led by President Hamid Karzai, who was elected in October 2004. Before the election, Karzai led the country after being chosen by delegates of the Bonn Conference in 2001 to head an interim government after the fall of the Taliban. While supporters have praised Karzai's efforts to promote national reconciliation and a growing economy, critics charge him with failing to rein in the country's warlords, inability to stem corruption and the growing drug trade, and the slow pace of reconstruction.

The current parliament was elected in 2005. Among the elected officials were former mujahadeen, Taliban fighters, communists, reformists, and Islamic fundamentalists. Surprisingly, 28% of the delegates elected were women, 3% more than the 25% minimum guaranteed under the constitution. Ironically, this made Afghanistan, long known under the Taliban for its oppression of women, one of the leading countries in terms of female representation.

The economy:

Afghanistan is endowed with a wealth of natural resources, including extensive deposits of natural gas, petroleum, coal, copper, chromite, talc, barites, sulfur, lead, zinc, iron ore, salt, and precious and semiprecious stones. In the 1970s the Soviets estimated Afghanistan had as much as 142 km³ (5 trillion cubic feet) of natural gas, 15 million m³ (95 million barrels) of oil and condensate reserves, and 400 million tons of coal. Unfortunately, the country's continuing conflict, remote and rugged terrain, and inadequate transportation network usually have made mining these resources difficult, and there have been few serious attempts to further explore or exploit them.

The most important resource has been natural gas, first tapped in 1967. At their peak during the 1980s, natural gas sales accounted for $300 million a year in export revenues (56% of the total). Ninety percent of these exports went to the Soviet Union to pay for imports and debts. However, during the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989, Afghanistan's natural gas fields were capped to prevent sabotage by the mujahidin. Restoration of gas production has been hampered by internal strife and the disruption of traditional trading relationships following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Gas production has dropped from a high of 8,200,000 m³ (290 million cubic feet) per day in the 1980s to a current low of about 600,000 m³ (22 million cubic feet) in 2001.

Very little of Afghanistan is useful for analytical purposes here due to its current reconstruction, but the U.S. military presence there ensures that it will remain as tightly under the thumb of Washington D.C. as they are able to, given the demands on the military occurring elsewhere in the world.

Pakistan

The government, in a particularly relevant passage can be somewhat summarized by the following selection:

Officially a federal republic, Pakistan has had a long history of alternating periods of electoral democracy and authoritarian military government. Military presidents include General Ayub Khan in the 1960s, General Zia ul Haq in the 1980s, and General Pervez Musharraf from 1999. However, a majority of Pakistan's Heads of State and Heads of Government have been elected civilian leaders. General elections were held in October 2002. After monitoring the elections, the Commonwealth Observer Group stated in conclusion:

We believe that on election day this was a credible election: the will of the people was expressed and the results reflected their wishes. However, in the context of various measures taken by the government we are not persuaded of the overall fairness of the process as a whole

On May 22, 2004, the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group re-admitted Pakistan into the Commonwealth, formally acknowledging its progress in returning to democracy.

Pakistan's economy:

In 1947, when Pakistan became independent, agriculture accounted for about 53% of its GDP. While per-capita agricultural output has grown since then, it has been outpaced by the growth of the non-agricultural sectors, and the share of agriculture has dropped to roughly one-fifth of Pakistan's economy.

In recent years, the country has seen rapid growth in industries (such as apparel, textiles, and cement) and services (such as telecommunications, transportation, advertising, and finance).

As you can see, oil is not a major component of the economy of Pakistan. However, they remain an ally of the United States despite the allegation that Usama Bin Laden may be hiding there, allegations of human rights abuses abound, and:

Pakistan is the sixth most populous country in the world and the second most populous Muslim country. It was established as a modern state in 1947, as one of the two parts of the partitioned British India, but the region has a long history of settlement and civilization including the Indus Valley Civilization. The region was invaded by Afghans, Greeks, Persians, Arabs, and was incorporated into the British Raj in the nineteenth century. Since independence, Pakistan has experienced times of significant military and economic growth, and times of instability, with the loss of East Pakistan (present-day Bangladesh). Pakistan has the seventh largest armed forces in the world and is a declared nuclear weapons state. (emphasis mine)

This is particularly ironic considering that Iran is under increased hostility by the U.S. for exactly the same reason, and UBL has never been suspected of crossing into Iran. For even more irony, please see look here.

Tags: oil, Middle East, Corporations, U.S. Foreign Policy, Bush Administration, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Pakistan